Climatic fluctuations in the past impacted the presence and cultural development of early modern humans in Europe1,2. Temporal and spatial shifts in the growing season affected prey animal migration patterns, which led to the establishment and abandonment of settlements in certain areas3, resulting in the expansion or breakdown of regional populations (Fig. 1). As the climate further deteriorated towards the Last Glacial Maximum, communication networks broke down, leading to a mosaic of human presence, well-documented in the coexistence of certain technologies and artefact morphologies4.
In this project, we aim to improve our understanding of the paleovegetation dynamics during climatic fluctuations of the Late Pleistocene using a paleovegetation model at a high temporal resolution. Utilizing pollen data from paleoenvironmental archives such as lakes and bogs allows us to compare and validate the model output with proxy-data reconstruction methods such as the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) algorithm6. This requires a wide array of proxy data at a high temporal and geospatial resolution from various archives, including but not limited to lakes, bogs, and marine sediments. These data need to be interpreted against the backdrop of Last Glacial climate dynamics, sea level, ice-sheet extent and permafrost distribution and put into an archaeological context, utilizing evidence for settlements from the Upper Paleolithic in Europe, artefact morphologies and data on migratory animals.
This allows us to test whether grazing herbivores follow the green wave7 of vegetation expansion. In conjunction with archeological data, we can then evaluate whether the migratory behavior of hunter-gatherers is linked to the propagation of the green wave, and thus potential prey animals, and explore the links between the establishment and abandonment of settlements with regard to abrupt climate change.
The combined approach of climate model data and paleoclimate proxy data will yield substantial information on population dynamics, cultural change, demographic development and communication networks in response to abrupt climate change during the Last Glacial Period. This research is critical for understanding the relationship between climate change and human migration patterns spanning from the first arrival of anatomically modern humans in Europe until after the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 45–15 ka BP).
Figure 1: Comparison of modeled vegetation5 (based on climate models) and proxy-based vegetation reconstructions (red circles; using pollen data and the REVEALS algorithm6) at 52,000 years before present. The data show the percentage of the land-cover type “Open land”, which comprises various non-forest biomes such as e.g., grassland and shrubland (vegetation model) as well as steppe and tundra (REVEALS). The similarity of both datasets is given as Pearson’s R, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
